Theories of Change in Reality: Strengths, Limitations and Future Directions

For over 50 years, evaluators have used theories of change to articulate the causal logic underpinning how an intervention is intended to bring about a desired change. From its origins in programme evaluation, the approach has been adopted more widely for purposes from program design to program management. As theories of change continue to be used for multiple purposes, it is an opportune moment for the evaluation community--where the approach originated--to provide their perspective on the strengths and limitations of the approach and its future directions. To provide these perspectives, we asked nearly 30 of the world’s leading evaluators and programme theorists to provide a short essay on the past, present, and future of theories of change. This book presents their insights organized into five main themes: the use of theories of change in broader public policy contexts; using theories of change to establish causality; developing theories of change reflective of multiple stakeholder perspectives; using theories of change to understand wider societal change processes; and applying theories of change approaches for multiple purposes. By sharing these diverse perspectives, the book aims to both provide evaluators and emerging programme theorists with critical perspectives to inform future practice.

The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND) 4.0 license.

Andrew Koleros is a Principal Researcher at Mathematica with twenty years of experience in designing and delivering mixed-methods evaluations and program monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) systems for both small scale and large scale social and economic development projects. He brings particular expertise in using theory-based approaches that integrate complexity concepts and systems thinking into program and evaluation design processes to address complex societal problems from safe and affordable housing to youth employment to advancing health equity. He obtained his master’s in public health from the Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. He has published on his work in designing theory-based evaluation approaches in the American Journal of Evaluation, the Canadian Journal of Programme Evaluation and in multiple practitioner settings. He is a member of the American Evaluation Association, the European Evaluation Society, and the Canadian Evaluation Society.

Marie-Hélène Adrien is a senior evaluation practitioner and researcher with 35 years of experience in evaluating the performance of programs and institutions financed by bilateral and multilateral agencies and philanthropies around the globe Dr. Adrien is a former CEO of the consulting firm Universalia Management Group in Montreal and was the President of the International Development Evaluation Association (IDEAS), as well as a professor of practice at the International Development Studies Program of McGill University.

Tony Tyrrell is an independent consultant with more than 25 years’ experience in evaluation and related fields. Tony’s early experience in evaluation was with the European Social Fund Evaluation Unit where he produced influential evaluations on various subjects including early school leaving and local development. He later worked with a number of private consulting firms on strategic, policy, and program evaluation and on performance management. More recently he spent six years with the Independent Evaluation Group at the World Bank Group (WBG). Tony now works as an independent consultant with various clients including the WBG, the Asian Development Bank, various Governments and private consultancies. He holds an MSc in Management (Organisation Behavior), and an MA in English Literature. Tony was co-editor (with Burt Perrin) of another book in this series, ’Changing Bureaucracies’ (2021).