On the Edge

 
        金融時報、衛報、星期日泰晤士報一致評選為2024年最值得期待的書籍！
 
       對沖基金經理人、加密貨幣忠實信徒，與藍籌藝術的投資者，這些人之間有什麼共通點？這群被稱為「河流」（the River）的專業風險承擔者，具備多數人不常見的特質，像是對風險的容忍度高於常人、對不確定性能抱持欣賞的態度、喜歡與數字為伍，他們善於駕馭風險，不被傳統所羈絆，遊走在風險的邊緣，卻能克制非理性的情感，在複雜之中預測走向。因著具備以上的思維模式和特質，讓「河流」在當今社會中，獲取超額報酬，快速累積財富與權力，成為科技和全球經濟變革的驅動者。
 
       想進一步瞭解這群專業風險承擔者的世界，是如何運作的？當代最受矚目的統計與預測鬼才、超級暢銷書《精準預測》作者奈特・席佛，藉由新書帶讀者認識在世界撲克牌大賽中兩度奪冠的美國職業玩家杜爾・賓臣、PayPal共同創辦人彼得・提爾、加密貨幣交易所FTX創辦人SBF、Open AI共同創辦人山姆・奧特曼，暢談「風險預測」應用在各領域的藝術，引領讀者走入「河流」的神秘世界，理解這群以風險管理見長的預測者，如何透過承擔風險，掌握超額的報酬與權力。(文/博客來編譯)

        NAMED A MOST-ANTICIPATED BOOK OF 2024 BY FT, The Guardian, and The Sunday Times

        From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk—and the players raising the stakes

        In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life.  

        These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century. By embedding within the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.

        The River has increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—including the flaws in their thinking—is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk; appreciation of uncertainty; affinity for numbers; skill at de-coupling; self-reliance and a distrust of the conventional wisdom. For the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale.

        Taking us behind-the-scenes from casinos to venture capital firms to the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply-reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of powerbrokers and risk takers.

Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise. He writes the Substack "Silver Bulletin."