The Year of Elections
2024全球關鍵選舉年 牽動世界未來局勢
CROWD OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS
U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!
SIMON CULLEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT
2024 is shaping up to be an election year like none other.
DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
We wanna make sure that we have a big victory. That’s gonna be … It[’s] gonna be all over the world. They’re gonna be watching this.
JOE BIDEN, 46TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
We’re at an inflection point in our history where the decisions made in the short period of time we’re in now are gonna determine the course of this country and the world for the next six or seven decades.
SIMON CULLEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT
While the U.S. presidential election might be the highest-profile, it’s not the only consequential contest taking place.
OLIVIA O’SULLIVAN, DIRECTOR, U.K. IN THE WORLD PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE
This is a hugely significant year for democracy. It depends [on] how you count to or exactly what you classify as an election, but by some measures, there are at least 40 national elections happening in 2024.
SIMON CULLEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT
In absolute numbers, that’s more than 2 billion people eligible to cast a ballot. Among those up for reelection: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi [and] South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is also expected to call a 2024 election. Taiwan, Indonesia and Mexico are going to the polls, too, although their incumbents won’t be candidates. And in Europe, hundreds of millions of voters will elect a new EU parliament.
OLIVIA O’SULLIVAN, DIRECTOR, U.K. IN THE WORLD PROGRAMME, CHATHAM HOUSE
For many countries, the health of their democracy itself will be being put to the test.
SIMON CULLEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT
And the results have the potential to reshape international affairs on a scale rarely seen, from international trade and climate change to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
While the results of some elections are all but guaranteed, others will be a genuine contest, meaning a relatively small shift in voter support could affect the outcome. That amplifies the potential impact of disinformation, and experts warn that risk is made even more significant by the fact that these elections are coinciding with a boom in artificial intelligence.
That brings with it the prospect of deepfake content like this.
AI-GENERATED RENDERING OF U.S. PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN
This is an AI-generated video showing just how far technology has come in recent years.
SIMON CULLEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT
Even Vladimir Putin, who is all but certain to be reelected Russian president in March, appeared momentarily surprised when confronted by a computer-generated version of himself.
DARRELL M. WEST, SENIOR FELLOW, CENTER FOR TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
People should be scared because the technology is enabling the creation of fake videos that could be very persuasive with the ordinary voters. People are not going to be able to distinguish the fake videos from real ones.
SIMON CULLEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT
Are governments ready for what’s coming down the line?
DARRELL M. WEST, SENIOR FELLOW, CENTER FOR TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
Governments are not ready. There are literally no guardrails in place.
SIMON CULLEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT
That puts more of an onus on technology companies to step in. Meta, which owns Facebook and Instagram, says it’s adapting its approach to deal with the challenges posed by artificial intelligence. TikTok has announced partnerships with external fact-checkers to combat misinformation, and X, which drastically cut staff under CEO Elon Musk, increasingly relies on users to flag misleading content.
SASHA FEGAN, EXECUTIVE PRODUCER / MEDIA STRATEGIST, CENTER FOR HUMANE TECHNOLOGY
The fact that there’s [there have] been such massive job cuts to content moderation teams pretty much across all the big so[cial] … U.S. social media platforms is evidence [of] the fact that they don’t really take it seriously enough, and that will have concerning effects in the 2024 elections.
SIMON CULLEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT
A record year for elections could also prove to be an unprecedented challenge to the electoral process.
Simon Cullen, CNN, London.
川普支持者群眾
U-S-A！U-S-A！U-S-A！
CNN 特派員 賽門．柯倫
二○二四年將發展成為一個與眾不同的選舉年。
共和黨總統候選人 唐納．川普
我們希望確保我們有一場重大勝利。那會是……這會是全球性的。他們都會關注這件事。
美國第四十六任總統 喬．拜登
我們正處於我國歷史中的一個轉折點，在我們現處的短短期間內做出的決定將決定這個國家和世界接下來六、七十年的走向。
CNN 特派員 賽門．柯倫
儘管美國總統大選可能是最受矚目的，但它不是唯一將舉行的重大競選。
查塔姆研究所英國在世界計畫總監 奧莉維亞．歐蘇利文
這是對民主而言極為重要的一年。這取決於你怎麼計算，或確切地說你把什麼歸類為一場選舉，但依據一些標準，有至少四十場國家選舉在二○二四年舉行。
CNN 特派員 賽門．柯倫
用絕對數字來看，那是指超過二十億人有資格投票。那些當中要競選連任的有：印度的納倫德拉．莫迪總理和南非總統西里爾．拉瑪佛沙。英國首相里希．蘇納克也預計在二○二四年召開選舉。台灣、印尼和墨西哥也將舉行投票，不過它們的現任領導人不會是候選人。而在歐洲，數億選民將推選新一屆歐盟議會。
查塔姆研究所英國在世界計畫總監 奧莉薇亞．歐蘇利文
對許多國家來說，它們的民主的健康狀況本身將受到考驗。
CNN 特派員 賽門．柯倫
而選舉結果有可能以少見的規模重塑國際事務，從國際貿易和氣候變遷到烏克蘭和加薩的戰爭。
雖然有些選舉的結果幾乎成定局，但其他選舉將會是名符其實的競賽，意味著相當小的選民支持變化可能會影響結果。那一點放大了假消息的潛在影響，而專家警告，那種風險因這些選舉與人工智慧的蓬勃發展同時發生而變得更加值得注意了。
那帶來了像這樣的深偽內容的可能性。
AI生成的美國總統喬．拜登影片
這是一段展現近年來科技進步的程度究竟有多大的AI生成影片。
CNN 特派員 賽門．柯倫
連幾乎肯定會在三月再度當選俄國總統的弗拉迪米爾．普丁，在面對一個電腦生成版的自己時，也頓時顯得驚訝。
布魯金斯學會科技創新中心資深研究員 達瑞爾．M.．衛斯特
人們應該要害怕，因為這項科技會讓對一般選民可能非常有說服力的假影片的創作成為可能。人們不會有辦法區分假影片和真影片的。
CNN 特派員 賽門．柯倫
政府對即將來臨的情況做好準備了嗎？
布魯金斯學會科技創新中心資深研究員 達瑞爾．M.．衛斯特
政府沒有準備好。根本沒有防護措施準備就緒。
CNN 特派員 賽門．柯倫
那在科技公司身上加諸了更多介入的責任。擁有Facebook和Instagram的Meta表示，該公司正在調整其方法來應對人工智慧帶來的挑戰。抖音已宣布與外部的事實查核單位合作以對抗錯誤訊息，而在執行長伊隆．馬斯克領導下大幅裁減員工的X平台則愈來愈仰賴用戶去標記誤導性的內容。
人文科技中心執行製作人暨媒體策略師 莎夏．菲根
對內容審查團隊如此大規模的裁員幾乎遍及所有大型社群……美國社群媒體平台這件事證明，他們不夠真正認真看待這件事，而那將會在二○二四年的選舉中產生令人憂心的影響。
CNN 特派員 賽門．柯倫
選舉創紀錄的一年也可能證明是對選舉程序前所未有的挑戰。
本台記者賽門．柯倫，在倫敦的報導。
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